U.S. fund managers have established positions in Canadian copper ore companies, while LME copper fluctuated and closed higher overnight [SMM Copper Morning Meeting Minutes].

Thursday, November 20, 2025

Futures: LME copper opened at $10,812.5/mt overnight, touched a high of $10,823/mt in early trading, then fluctuated downward and touched a low of $10,742.5/mt near the end of the session, finally closing at $10,802.5/mt, a gain of 0.98%, with trading volume reaching 17,000 lots and open interest reaching 317,000 lots. The most-traded SHFE copper contract 2601 opened at 86,540 yuan/mt overnight, touched a high of 86,600 yuan/mt in early trading, then fluctuated downward and touched a low of 86,120 yuan/mt near the end of the session, finally closing at 86,190 yuan/mt, a gain of 0.26%, with trading volume reaching 36,000 lots and open interest reaching 181,000 lots.

[SMM Copper Morning Conference Minutes] News:

(1) On November 18, US activist hedge fund Elliott Management reportedly built a position in Canadian gold and copper miner Barrick Gold, with a stake size sufficient to rank among the top ten shareholders, intensifying market expectations for significant changes at the company. Previously, there were reports that Barrick's board was considering splitting the company into two entities: one focused on North American "safe assets" and the other on "high-risk assets" in Africa and Asia. Analysis pointed out that this proposal and potential asset sales have been mentioned multiple times since the unexpected departure of former CEO Mark Bristow in September this year. Boosted by the news, Barrick's NYSE-listed share price opened about 1.4% higher, with the latest market capitalization around $63.7 billion, and a cumulative gain of nearly 135% year-to-date.

Spot:

(1) Shanghai: On November 19, SMM's #1 copper cathode spot prices against the front-month 2512 contract were quoted at a premium of 30-140 yuan/mt, with the average premium quoted at 85 yuan/mt, up 15 yuan/mt from the previous trading day; SMM's #1 copper cathode price ranged from 85,930 to 86,300 yuan/mt. In the morning session, the SHFE copper 2512 contract rose continuously from 85,800 yuan/mt to 86,130 yuan/mt, then slightly pared gains. The inter-month spread fluctuated between Contango 30 and Contango 10, and the import loss for SHFE front-month copper narrowed to within 600 yuan/mt. Looking ahead to today, expectations of warrant outflows prompted suppliers to sell actively, and premiums are likely to be suppressed tomorrow.

(2) Guangdong: On November 19, Guangdong's #1 copper cathode spot prices against the front-month contract were quoted at a discount of 10 yuan/mt to a premium of 80 yuan/mt, with the average premium at 35 yuan/mt, up 30 yuan/mt from the previous trading day; SX-EW copper was quoted at a discount of 90-50 yuan/mt, with the average discount at 70 yuan/mt, up 20 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. The average price of Guangdong's #1 copper cathode was 85,990 yuan/mt, up 45 yuan/mt from the previous trading day, and the average price of SX-EW copper was 85,885 yuan/mt, up 35 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. Overall, inventory fell significantly, suppliers actively held prices firm, and spot premiums moved higher.

(3) Imported copper: On November 19, warrant prices were $27-39/mt, QP December, with the average price up $1/mt from the previous trading day; B/L prices were $42-54/mt, QP December, with the average price up $1/mt from the previous trading day. EQ copper (CIF B/L) was $0-10/mt, QP December, with the average price up $6/mt from the previous trading day. Quotations referred to cargoes arriving in mid-to-late November and early December.

(4) Secondary copper: At 11:30 on November 19, the futures closing price was 86,080 yuan/mt, up 230 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. The average spot premium/discount was 85 yuan/mt, up 15 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. Today, the price of recycled copper raw materials remained unchanged. The price of bare bright copper in Guangdong was 78,100-78,300 yuan/mt, unchanged from the previous trading day. The price difference between copper cathode and copper scrap was 2,974 yuan/mt, up 245 yuan/mt MoM. The price difference between copper cathode rod and secondary copper rod was 1,430 yuan/mt. According to the SMM survey, approaching year-end, due to invoice issues in some regions, secondary copper rod enterprises had to temporarily halt production and resume after the invoice matters were resolved.

(5) Inventories: On November 18, LME copper cathode inventories increased by 17,375 mt to 157,875 mt; on November 19, SHFE warrant inventories decreased by 2,522 mt to 58,352 mt.

Prices: On the macro front, the US and Russia were reportedly secretly discussing a 28-point peace framework, but it did not fully incorporate opinions from Ukraine and Europe, sparking opposition from Ukraine. Meanwhile, the US non-farm payrolls data release was adjusted, with the October report canceled and the November report postponed to December 16. The US Fed's interest rate meeting will then face a lack of the latest employment data for reference. On the fundamentals, the regionally tight supply structure is expected to ease with the outflow of warrants, with expectations shifting towards looser conditions. Demand side, signs of recovery emerged, with downstream buying the dip sentiment rising. Overall, copper prices are expected to find support today.

[The information provided is for reference only. This article does not constitute direct investment research or advice. Clients should make decisions cautiously and not use this to replace independent judgment. Any decisions made by clients are unrelated to SMM.]